Probability Model
Exploration uses a cumulative probability model. Each turn has an independent chance of triggering a discovery, and spending more turns increases the overall probability. Tracking and Champion status add a few targeted modifiers on top.
Cumulative Probability Formula
Per-Turn Rates
| Constant | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
AMBUSH_CHANCE_PER_TURN | 0.005 | Chance of an ambush encounter each turn |
ENCOUNTER_SITE_CHANCE_PER_TURN | 0.0015 | Chance of discovering an encounter site each turn |
RESOURCE_NODE_CHANCE | 0.0005 | Chance of discovering a resource node each turn |
HIDDEN_CACHE_CHANCE | 0.0002 | Chance of finding a hidden cache each turn |
RESULT_RATE_MULTIPLIER | 0.75x | Tracking multiplier applied to ambush and encounter-site rates |
BONUS_MULTIPLIER | 1.1x | Champion multiplier applied to hidden cache chance |
MIN_EXPLORATION_TURNS | 100 | Minimum turns per exploration |
MAX_EXPLORATION_TURNS | 2,500 | Maximum turns per exploration |
Tracking Mode
Mob family tracking reduces broad exploration output in exchange for stronger family targeting. While tracking is active, ambush and encounter-site rates are multiplied by 0.75x. Resource node, hidden cache, and zone-exit base rates stay unchanged.
Champion Hidden Cache Bonus
Champion supporters multiply hidden cache chance by 1.1x. This bonus applies only to hidden caches, not to ambush, site, resource node, or zone-exit discovery rolls.
Probability Table
Cumulative chance of at least one discovery for each event type across common turn investments. Values computed from cumulativeProbability().
| Turns | Ambush | Encounter Site | Resource Node | Hidden Cache |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 22.2% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 100 | 39.4% | 13.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| 250 | 71.4% | 31.3% | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| 500 | 91.8% | 52.8% | 22.1% | 9.5% |
| 1,000 | 99.3% | 77.7% | 39.4% | 18.1% |
| 5,000 | 100.0% | 99.9% | 91.8% | 63.2% |
| 10,000 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 99.3% | 86.5% |
Expected Discoveries
The expected number of a given event over n turns is simply:
For example, spending 1,000 turns yields an expected 5.0 ambushes and 1.5 encounter sites.