Probability Model

Exploration uses a cumulative probability model. Each turn has an independent chance of triggering a discovery, and spending more turns increases the overall probability. Tracking, Champion status, world events, and travel ambushes add targeted modifiers on top.

Cumulative Probability Formula

P(at least one) = 1 - (1 - p)ⁿ where p = per-turn chance, n = turns spent

Per-Turn Rates

Constant	Value	Description
`AMBUSH_CHANCE_PER_TURN`	0.5%	Chance of an ambush encounter each turn
`ENCOUNTER_SITE_CHANCE_PER_TURN`	0.15%	Chance of discovering an encounter site each turn
`RESOURCE_NODE_CHANCE`	0.05%	Chance of discovering a resource node each turn
`HIDDEN_CACHE_CHANCE`	0.02%	Chance of finding a hidden cache each turn
`EVENT_DISCOVERY_CHANCE_PER_TURN`	0.01%	Chance of discovering an eligible world event each turn
`TRAVEL_AMBUSH_CHANCE_PER_TURN`	4%	Chance of a travel ambush each travel turn
`RESULT_RATE_MULTIPLIER`	0.75x	Tracking multiplier applied to ambush and encounter-site rates
`BONUS_MULTIPLIER`	1.1x	Champion multiplier applied to hidden cache chance
`MIN_EXPLORATION_TURNS`	100	Minimum turns per exploration
`MAX_EXPLORATION_TURNS`	2,500	Maximum turns per exploration

Tracking Mode

Mob family tracking reduces broad exploration output in exchange for stronger family targeting. While tracking is active, ambush and encounter-site rates are multiplied by 0.75x. Resource node, hidden cache, and zone-exit base rates stay unchanged.

trackedAmbushRate = AMBUSH_CHANCE_PER_TURN × 0.75

trackedEncounterSiteRate = ENCOUNTER_SITE_CHANCE_PER_TURN × 0.75

Champion Hidden Cache Bonus

Champion supporters multiply hidden cache chance by 1.1x. This bonus applies only to hidden caches, not to ambush, site, resource node, or zone-exit discovery rolls.

championHiddenCacheChance = HIDDEN_CACHE_CHANCE × 1.1

World Events

When a world event is eligible for discovery, exploration performs a separate event roll at 0.01% per turn. This roll is independent of ambushes, encounter sites, resource nodes, hidden caches, and zone exits.

Travel Ambushes

Zone travel uses its own ambush model. Each travel turn has a 4% chance to trigger a travel ambush; this is separate from the standard exploration ambush rate.

travelAmbushChance = 1 - (1 - TRAVEL_AMBUSH_CHANCE_PER_TURN)^travelTurns

Probability Table

Cumulative chance of at least one discovery for each event type across legal exploration turn investments. Values computed from cumulativeProbability().

Turns	Ambush	Encounter Site	Resource Node	Hidden Cache	World Event
100	39.4%	13.9%	4.9%	2.0%	1.0%
250	71.4%	31.3%	11.8%	4.9%	2.5%
500	91.8%	52.8%	22.1%	9.5%	4.9%
1,000	99.3%	77.7%	39.4%	18.1%	9.5%
2,500	100.0%	97.7%	71.4%	39.3%	22.1%

Expected Discoveries

The expected number of a given event over n turns is simply:

expected = n * p

For example, spending 1,000 turns yields an expected 5.0 ambushes and 1.5 encounter sites.